Market Watch: Markets React to US Political News

Financial and commodity markets analytics

The recent announcement that President Biden will not seek re-election has introduced uncertainty among investors. It remains unclear if Vice-President Harris will face any challenges for the nomination. The US dollar is showing mixed performance against G10 currencies: the dollar bloc and Norway are weaker, while the yen has risen approximately 0.45%, leading other currencies. The Swiss franc, euro, and sterling are marginally stronger. US index futures are trading positively after experiencing significant declines over the past three sessions. Gold is steady around $2400, following a record high near $2484 last week. September WTI fell by 3.25% before the weekend, and continued selling pressure has driven prices down to about $78.50 today.

Asia Pacific Markets
This week's economic calendar in the Asia Pacific is light, featuring the flash July PMI on July 24 and Tokyo's July CPI on July 26. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) unexpectedly cut the seven-day repo rate by 10 basis points to 1.7%. Last week, the PBOC highlighted the increased importance of the seven-day repo rate, suggesting it may replace the one-year Medium-Term Lending Facility rate as the key operational rate. Supported by intervention and lower US 10-year yields, the yen has quietly achieved a three-week advance, the longest streak this year. The Australian dollar remains under pressure, finding support near $0.6660 today.

European Markets
The primary focus in European markets this week is the flash eurozone and UK PMI. From late June’s low to last week's high, the euro rose about 2.65%. This rally appears to be over, with a correction likely as it consolidates around $1.0880. Similarly, sterling increased by approximately 3.4% from its early July low to last week's yearly high near $1.3045, finding support near $1.29 before the weekend.

American Markets
In the US, the main highlight this week is the initial estimate of Q2 GDP. The Atlanta Fed's GDP tracker estimates growth at 2.7%, with an update expected on Wednesday, ahead of the Thursday release. The median forecast from Bloomberg's survey is 1.9%. While the Federal Reserve targets the PCE deflator, economists and markets closely watch the CPI (and PPI) for critical price signals.
The Bank of Canada meets on July 24, with markets anticipating a consecutive rate cut, positioning it as one of the most dovish central banks among the G10. The US dollar nearly reached CAD 1.3850 before the weekend, marking its highest level since July 2.