Market Watch: Market Awaits US CPI

Financial and commodity markets analytics

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) has emerged as a pivotal high-frequency indicator for the capital markets, attracting significant attention from investors and traders. In anticipation of the latest US CPI data release, currency markets are exhibiting cautious trading patterns. Major G10 currencies are currently experiencing limited fluctuations, indicating market participants are on hold for new data insights. Similarly, currencies from emerging markets show a mixed performance, reflecting a diverse set of influences and expectations.
In the commodities sector, gold prices are undergoing a period of consolidation, following a recent surge to nearly $2200. Support levels are observed at approximately $2170, followed by a secondary support mark around $2150.
The oil market, specifically April WTI contracts, demonstrated volatility, touching a two-week nadir at around $76.80, before recuperating to just below $78. Subsequently, prices edged higher, reaching $78.70.

Asia-Pacific
The Bank of Japan maintains its target interest rate at 0.10%, despite the actual effective rate being slightly negative at -0.01%. Recent robust economic indicators, alongside comments from Bank of Japan officials, have sparked speculation regarding potential rate hikes, possibly as soon as the next week.
The US dollar exhibited stability around JPY147.00 during the previous North American trading session.
The Australian dollar experienced a dip, reaching lows just under $0.6600, and has since hovered between $0.6610 and $0.6620, indicating a narrow trading band.

Europe
The UK's labor market is showing signs of a deceleration, with employment trends indicating a mixed pattern of decline in Q3 followed by recovery in Q4 2023, and a weak start to Q1 2024.
The British pound achieved a yearly high before retracting to test support levels around $1.2800.
The euro's response has been muted, with minimal gains post the employment data release. Current support for the euro is pinpointed between $1.0890 and $1.0910, with trading confined to a tight range today.

America
The forthcoming CPI data is highly anticipated, given its critical role in shaping monetary policy and investor sentiment. While the Federal Reserve primarily targets the PCE deflator, the CPI and PPI are essential for estimating the PCE trends. Analysts forecast a 0.4% increase in the headline CPI for the previous month, translating to a 3.1% annual inflation rate.
The US dollar's performance against the Canadian dollar remains subdued, with no significant movements beyond the established trading range for the day.