The euro and British pound saw significant declines as weak preliminary PMI data from Europe, Japan, and Australia underscored economic divergence with the United States. This bolstered the US dollar, which gained broadly across the G10 currencies. Only the Japanese yen managed to hold its ground against the greenback. Meanwhile, global equities showed mixed performance, with US index futures signaling a softer opening. January WTI crude oil reached a weekly high near $70.75 before consolidating ahead of the US market open.
Asia-Pacific Markets
Japan's October CPI aligned with expectations, largely informed by Tokyo’s earlier release. The US dollar, which approached JPY 156 earlier this week, dipped below JPY 154 yesterday amid speculation of a potential Bank of Japan rate hike next month. However, it rebounded to approximately JPY 154.70, supported by US 10-year Treasury yields, which climbed back above 4.40%. The dollar is now trading in a JPY 154–155 range.
In Australia, the Australian dollar's recent consolidation is under threat. After bottoming near $0.6440 last week, the currency has been trading in a $0.6480–$0.6545 range over the past three sessions. Today’s trading saw the Aussie test four-day lows.
European Markets
The eurozone’s preliminary November PMI data was notably weak. The manufacturing PMI fell to 45.2 from 46.0, marking the 17th consecutive month below the 50 threshold, which separates expansion from contraction. In the UK, October retail sales came in twice as weak as forecasted, while the preliminary PMI showed further softening. The composite PMI slipped to 49.9, its lowest level this year. Both the euro and sterling continued their downward trajectory, extending to new lows today.
American Markets
In the US, the focus shifts to the preliminary November PMI and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. The manufacturing PMI is expected to remain below the 50 mark, consistent with contraction since June.
Canada, meanwhile, reports September retail sales, which have been declining since the first quarter of this year.
The US dollar hit a 4.5-year high of CAD 1.41 late last week. Yesterday, it dipped below its 20-day moving average for the first time since the November 7 FOMC meeting, briefly trading near CAD 1.3930 before recovering to CAD 1.3970.