Market Watch: ECB & US Retail Sales

Financial and commodity markets analytics

As markets await fresh data releases, the US dollar remains steady. Investors and traders are primarily focused on the European Central Bank's (ECB) upcoming interest rate decision and any accompanying statements regarding monetary policy. In the U.S., retail sales data and initial jobless claims will also take center stage, providing further insight into the state of the economy and the job market.

Asia Pacific Markets
Tech-heavy stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region are expected to rally on Thursday after the world’s largest chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), exceeded expectations. This alleviates concerns about global semiconductor demand and reassures investors regarding the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. Earlier this week, chip stocks were hit hard following a cautious outlook from European firm ASML, but TSMC's announcement of a 54% surge in profits, driven by high demand for AI-related chips, has brightened the outlook. As the leading producer of advanced chips used in AI, TSMC's customers include major players such as Apple and Nvidia.

European Markets
All eyes in Europe are on the ECB, which is expected to deliver its third interest rate cut of the year on Thursday. This would mark the first time in 13 years that the ECB has made back-to-back rate cuts. Meanwhile, the euro has fallen to its lowest level since early August, reflecting the market's anticipation of the ECB decision and a generally stronger US dollar.

American Markets
In the U.S., Wall Street index futures are pointing higher ahead of Thursday’s trading session, with the positive news from Taiwan likely to boost both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, potentially driving them back to record highs. Treasury yields remain stable, with the 10-year yield holding above 4% as markets prepare for key retail, industrial, and weekly jobless data from the previous month.
The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the labor market as it considers its next move on interest rates. However, jobless claims data have been difficult to interpret due to disruptions caused by recent storms and strikes. Despite the noise in the data, futures markets are still nearly fully pricing in a quarter-point rate cut by the Fed next month.