Market Watch: Dollar And Gold Reached Fresh Highs

Financial and commodity markets analytics

As financial markets undergo a reconfiguration of central bank rate cut timelines, focus swiftly shifts to the kickoff of the first quarter U.S. corporate earnings season this Friday. This occurs amidst concerns over a notable downturn in China's trade performance last month and escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Gold continues its meteoric rise, surging 17% in just six weeks to reach yet another record high of $2,400 early Friday, while U.S. crude oil edges back above $86 per barrel.
Concurrently, the dollar strengthens further, hitting another 2024 high as central bank sequencing undergoes a significant shift. The European Central Bank's indication of a potential rate cut in June, regardless of Federal Reserve hesitancy, contributes to this dollar boost.

Asia Pacific markets
China experiences a sharp contraction in March exports, coupled with unexpectedly shrinking imports, both significantly below market expectations.
The dollar was bolstered by ongoing Japanese yen weakness to 34-year lows and the shocking Chinese trade data that hit the yuan.
The Aussie is probing the support zone located around the 0.6490 mark against the US Dollar.

European markets
The confirmation of German inflation hitting its lowest point in nearly three years, at just 2.3% last month, reinforces expectations of a solo move by the ECB by midyear.
Consequently, the euro plunges to its lowest level of the year, marking its most substantial three-day decline in 14 months.
Despite a retreat to a one-month low against the dollar, doubts linger regarding whether the Bank of England will match the ECB's boldness in cutting rates as early as June. Money markets indicate less than a 50% likelihood of a BOE move that month.

American markets
Fed futures undergo recalibration yet again, inching closer to pricing in two rate cuts this year, beginning in September, just six weeks ahead of the U.S. election. While a June rate cut is now off the table, the probability of a move as soon as July surpasses 50%.

The Greenback breaks out of its consolidation range and trends towards the upper end of the global range, located around the 1.3850 level against the Canadian dollar.