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Euro awaits CPI numbers

Published on 12.12.2023 15:43

The EUR/USD pair oscillates in a narrow trading range above the mid-1.0700s during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of key events in the US and Eurozone. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce the interest rate decision on Wednesday and the European Central Bank (ECB) is broadly expected to keep its Deposit Facility Rate at 4.0% on Thursday. These events could trigger volatility in the market. The pair currently trades around 1.0764, unchanged on the day.

The markets anticipate the ECB to keep interest rates at record highs to bring inflation down to its 2% target. The ECB is widely expected to maintain its Deposit Facility Rate at 4.0%, and markets will be watching the Press Conference to see how hawkish or dovish remarks the ECB will deliver.

The stronger-than-expected US labor market report last week fueled investor optimism about the economy's soft landing and boosted the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to their highest closing levels since early 2022. On Tuesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which is expected to tick up in November from 0.0% to 0.1% MoM while the annual inflation figure is expected to ease from 3.2% to 3.1% YoY.

Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell pushed back on market expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts, adding that it would be premature to declare victory over inflation. However, markets believe that the Fed is done hiking and could start cutting as soon as March 2024. The markets have priced in that FOMC to hold the rate steady at 5.25%–5.50% at its December meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.


Looking ahead, market players will monitor the US CPI data on Tuesday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday. November's PPI figure is expected to improve from -0.5% to 0.1% MoM. The attention will shift to the FOMC interest rate decision at 19:00 GMT on Wednesday. Traders will take cues from these events and find a trading opportunity around the EUR/USD pair.